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Sequence: Reframing Impact
Previous: Value Impact
Next: Attainable Utility Theory: Why Things Matter

Tags
understanding the world
impact regularization

About this post
Read time: 1 minute
Published on September 24th, 2019
Updated on November 22nd, 2025

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Deducing Impact

By Alex Turner

Published on September 24th, 2019

Text reads: "Impact is in the eye of the beholder. Traffic jams are vividly big deals to tardy commuters, but everyone else doesn't really care." A frustrating traffic jam is contrasted with a lone driver in an open lane enjoying music.

Text: "This concept is important, so I'm going to present another zany situation. Imagine that the sun goes supernova." An illustration shows the sun exploding into a brilliant supernova, sending a destructive wave of light that engulfs Earth.

Text: "Now, being on—". A hand-drawn Harry Potter with an annoyed expression interrupts: "Our sun is a main-sequence G-type star, it can't explode. Any energy input just decreases the volume of the hydrogen plasma, the Sun doesn't have a degenerate core that could be detonated. The Sun doesn't have enough mass to go supernova." Handwritten text: "Yes, yes, thank you—everyone knows that. It's just another weird situation I'm forcing on my readership. Now, being on Earth here is objectively impactful because it matters to almost any agent in your shoes. However, whether this is a big deal to you depends on who and where you are."

A green stick figure alien sleeping on a cot on a white, curved surface. Above, a single bright star shines in a black sky.

Handwritten text titled "Impact is Comparative." It explains that if we grew up expecting the sun to go supernova, discovering it won't would be a big deal. But to us, it's the expectation, so it has zero impact. The text concludes that impact must be comparative, based on difference or change.

A handwritten note introduces the post's goal: understanding why AIs might catastrophically impact us. The first step is "understanding impact,"—an important question with an answer not yet widely circulated. The note invites the reader to try their hand at answering the question.